Football 2011

Football season has finally arrived. Last year, the Monsters of the Midway, the Chicago Bears, lost to those twaddling cheeseheads, the damn Green Bay Packers, in the NFC Championship game. The Bears surprised everyone in 2010 by going 11-5 and winning the NFC North for the third time in 6 years, during a season they were widely predicted to finish at or below .500.

This year appears to be more of the same. General consensus is that the Bears will be lucky to win 8 games and will miss the playoffs. Sports media further aggravates these insults by projecting that the Detroit Lions, who have won eight games over the last three years, will finish ahead of the Bears in the NFC North.

The 2011 Bears have one of the most difficult schedules in the league, based on opponents' 2010 records. I'd like to offer my own thoughts and predictions based on the Bears team as they appear to me independent of their schedule.

Most of the key players on defense are on the wrong side of 30. They can all still play at a high level (witness Urlacher's Pro Bowl selection at 32), but the chance of injury is higher with older players, and the backups are untested at best. I think the defense has another year, maybe two, of elite play left in them, but the window is closing.

That said, Henry Melton is the best defensive prospect the Bears have had in years. Lovie Smith's defense relies on a dominating 3-technique tackle, and Melton looks like he can fit the bill.

An injury to any of the starting linebackers would cripple the defense.

Aside from Charles Tillman, the Bears starting cornerbacks are not noticeably better than their backups. This could be a problem given their schedule.

If Brandon Meriweather replaces Major Wright as the starting free safety, it will be trading a 24 year old who makes big plays on the ball at the expense of solid tackling and good coverage for a 28 year old who makes big plays on the ball at the expense of solid tackling and good coverage.

The offensive line looks to be leaps and bounds better than the one that gave up 52 sacks last year. Losing Olin Kruetz hurts from a cohesion and leadership standpoint, but the unit as a whole is more physical and more talented than the one from last year.

Because of the improvements on the O-line, I expect Jay Cutler to take another step forward at QB. The Bears receiver problems are overblown, and if Cutler can stay upright, I don't think throwing 30 TDs is out of the question.

Matt Forte deserves a raise. Lance Briggs does not.

The threat of Devin Hester on punt returns is overstated. I encourage opposing teams to kick to him, preferably low, line drive style punts. Don't be a wuss; kick it to Hester. What's the worst that can happen?

Hopefully the shock collar that Lovie Smith strapped on Mike Martz during the 2010 bye week still works, and will keep Martz from calling 8 consecutive pass plays to open games this year.

Final prediction: 10-6, 2nd in NFC North, wildcard playoff berth.